Daily market analysis
XRP (XRP) elliott wave
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XRP Broken Impulse: Reclaim $1.01 or Bull-Trap Below $0.9862?
XRP Is Stuck at $1.00 — And That's the Whole Story
XRP is trading almost exactly where it was 24 hours ago — right around $1.00, down roughly 0.2% on the day, with 24-hour volume near $880 million. Yahoo Finance's feed shows a nearly identical print, $1.0011, up a fraction of a percent — the kind of split-decision tape that tells you nothing has actually resolved yet.
That stagnation matters because it's happening at the single most important level on the chart. Yesterday's analysis drew a hard invalidation floor at $0.9862, and 24 hours later, that floor hasn't been touched. But this isn't a clean win for the bulls — it's a coin flip that hasn't been called yet. Zoom into the one-hour chart and you'll find wave three coming in shorter than wave one, a structural rule violation that kills the textbook impulse count outright.
The 4H Picture: A Grinding Decline That Never Behaved Like an Impulse
Pull back to the four-hour chart and the bigger picture comes into focus. XRP peaked near $1.16 in late July, and everything since has been one long grinding decline into the current dollar zone. Auto-pivots will happily label that decline waves one through five down to $0.9965, followed by an A-B-C bounce — but the labels don't survive a rule check.
- Wave four dips to $0.9994 — deep inside wave one's territory. In a clean impulse, wave four is never allowed to overlap wave one.
- Wave three measures only 0.63x wave one — undersized for a genuine trending third wave.
- Wave four retraces a deep 76% of wave three, well past the standard 0.618 ceiling.
- The B-wave of the bounce overshoots the A-wave by 10%, and the C-wave is a shallow 49% of A — a classic irregular-flat signature, not a sharp zigzag.
Two rule breaks in the decline, plus an irregular-flat bounce, means this entire swing behaves more like a corrective structure than a textbook five-wave impulse. The whole range lives between $0.9882 and $0.9988, and that upper line is the tentative higher-degree invalidation. Price is currently stamped with a fresh B right at that shelf — meaning the higher-degree structure is still undecided. Either this B-wave rolls into one more C-wave down, or it's the last gasp before a real reclaim.
The 1H Primary Count: Two Paths From One Level
On the one-hour chart, price rallied from wave one near $1.01 up to wave two near $1.04 — a normal-looking pullback. But wave three only reached $1.01, barely poking above wave one's high. That technically makes wave three the shortest wave, a hard rule break for any impulse. Wave four then stretched to $1.05, overlapping wave one outright — a second violation. Two broken rules in one structure means this isn't a real impulse; it reads better as part of a larger flat or triangle.
From wave five's low near $0.9915, the structure builds an A-wave up to $1.03, a B-wave down to the $0.9862 floor — the exact level flagged yesterday — and a C-wave back up to roughly $1.01, right where price sits now.
| Scenario | Trigger | Key Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Primary — Reclaim | Close above $1.02, ideally through $1.021 | 0.618 fib $1.037, 0.786 fib $1.024, then $1.048 and $1.066 |
| Alternate — Bull Trap | Rejection at $1.00–$1.01 shelf | Expanded flat, fresh C-wave undercuts $0.9862 floor |
Two paths, one level. Reclaim $1.01 and the road opens toward the mid-$1.02s to $1.07 zone. Reject here, and $0.9862 stops being a floor and becomes a launch pad for one more leg lower.
The 15M Trigger: Where the Battle Is Happening Candle by Candle
Drop to the fifteen-minute chart and you get the actual entry mechanics. Wave one prints near $1.01, then wave two crashes to $0.9882 — a retrace of more than 100% of wave one, an outright rule break since wave two is never supposed to fully erase wave one. Scrap the impulse label here too; this is corrective chop, not trend.
From there, a choppy one-through-five builds back up to $1.01, followed by an A-wave down to $0.9888, and now a B-wave stamped right back at the same $1.01 shelf where price trades as we speak. That's the third or fourth tag of the exact same invalidation line — and repeated tests of one level tell you precisely where the real decision sits.
The fib pocket from the 0.618 to 0.786 retracement, roughly $1.00 to $1.001, is where the immediate fight is happening. For timing an entry, you want either a clean 15-minute close and hold above $1.01 for the bullish path, or a decisive rejection candle with volume at this shelf to time the short side toward the $0.9862 floor.
The Scenarios, Ranked
Stacking all three timeframes together, here's how the paths rank by structural weight right now:
| Rank | Scenario | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reclaim & rally toward $1.048–$1.066 | 15M/1H close above $1.021 | Close below $0.9862 |
| 2 | Bull trap — fresh C-wave down | Rejection candle at $1.00–$1.01 with volume | Sustained close above $1.021 |
| 3 | Extended chop inside $0.9862–$1.021 | No decisive close either direction | N/A — range continues |
Notice that every serious count — 4H, 1H, and 15M — converges on the same two numbers: $0.9862 on the downside and roughly $1.01–$1.021 on the upside. That convergence across timeframes is exactly why this setup deserves patience rather than a guess.
Positioning & Order Flow: Does the Market Agree With the Chart?
Structure is only half the picture — leveraged positioning tells you where the pain is stacked. XRP briefly broke below $1 on August 11, touching $0.9915 for the first time since November 2024 and snapping a 635-consecutive-day streak of holding that psychological support. That break triggered a violent reaction in derivatives: funding rates surged over 200% that same day as open interest climbed to roughly $883.8 million.
That kind of funding spike after a support break is a textbook signature of short-term leveraged longs getting squeezed and re-entering — exactly the kind of crowded positioning that fuels sharp bull-trap wicks when structure fails to confirm. Total XRP open interest on major venues remains substantial, with tracked derivatives volume still running in the hundreds of millions to billions across exchanges as of mid-August.
Here's where it gets interesting: the chart says $0.9862 is the line, and the liquidation data says leverage is bunched tightly around $1.00 and just below it. When price and positioning cluster at the same level, moves through it tend to be fast and violent in either direction — which is exactly why the 15-minute chart keeps getting rejected at the same shelf instead of breaking cleanly.
Structure vs. Positioning: Do They Agree?
Broadly, yes — and that's the useful part. Both the Elliott Wave count and the derivatives data point to the same conclusion: this is a genuine decision zone, not a level that's likely to get quietly walked through. The repeated funding spikes and open interest buildup around $1.00 mirror the repeated wave tags at the same price on the 15-minute chart.
- Structure: three separate timeframes converge on $0.9862 (floor) and ~$1.02 (reclaim trigger).
- Positioning: leverage and funding activity spiked precisely around the $0.99–$1.00 zone on August 11,.
- Combined read: whichever side breaks first is likely to break fast, because both chart structure and crowded positioning agree this is the pivot.
Levels to Watch and the Bottom Line
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Hard invalidation | $0.9862 | Break here flips the entire bullish reclaim thesis |
| Recent swing low | $0.9915 | November 2024 support, briefly lost Aug 11 |
| Current price | ~$1.00 | Sitting on the repeated 15M/1H decision shelf |
| Reclaim trigger | $1.02 (through $1.021) | Confirms the primary bullish A-B-C completion |
| Target 1 | $1.024–$1.037 | 0.786 / 0.618 fib cluster |
| Target 2 | $1.048 | Secondary extension |
| Target 3 | $1.066 | Final target if reclaim confirms |
The decline from the July high broke nearly every impulse rule along the way — overlapping fourth waves, a shortest third wave, a wave two that erased more than 100% of wave one. None of that is a footnote; it's the reason this correction has dragged on and kept snapping back to the same handful of levels instead of trending cleanly in either direction.
For now, XRP sits exactly where it sat a day ago — a tenth of a percent removed, with volume around $880 million to $950 million depending on the venue, — waiting on a single decisive close. Reclaim $1.02 and the corrective structure completes, opening room toward $1.048 and $1.066. Lose $0.9862 and the bull-trap scenario takes over, with a fresh leg down likely undercutting the recent $0.9915 low.
Previous days
08/17/2026 — XRP's $0.9862 Floor Holds — Reclaim or Bull Trap at $1.02?
XRP's $0.9862 Floor Holds — Reclaim or Bull Trap at $1.02?
Invalidation Held, Reclaim Stalling
Three days ago, XRP swept $0.9862 and the entire question was whether that print marked the bottom of the correction. It did hold. Price has since climbed back toward the round $1.00 level, and as of the latest snapshot XRP is trading in the $0.988–$1.006 range, with spot sitting near $0.9977 on major venues and closer to $1.00 on others depending on the feed.
That's roughly a 0.8% gain since the flush, from about $0.9931 up to just over a dollar. None of the three upside targets flagged earlier — $1.022, $1.044, and $1.063 — have printed yet. The count itself hasn't flipped, but the probabilities have tightened considerably. This reclaim now has to prove itself at $1.021 before anyone should call it confirmed.
Even prediction markets are split on where this settles. Polymarket currently prices the $1.00–$1.10 range as the frontrunner outcome at 57%, with the $0.90–$1.00 range as the next most likely bucket at 43%. Gemini's binary prediction market, meanwhile, is tracking whether XRP holds above $0.96 by end of day — a level well below today's action, but a reminder that downside risk hasn't been fully priced out. That split in market sentiment mirrors exactly what the wave count is showing: two live paths, and only one level decides which one plays out.
4H — The Bigger Picture: A Deep Flush, Not a Clean Impulse
Zoom out to the four-hour chart and the higher-degree structure gets messy fast. The auto-count tags wave 1 near $1.05, wave 3 around $1.13, and wave 5 topping near $1.16 — but run the math and this isn't a textbook impulse.
- Wave 2 retraced more than 100% of wave 1 — a hard rule break. A real wave two never fully erases wave one.
- Wave 4 drags back into wave 1's price territory — another impulse violation.
- The five-leg rally to $1.16 is better read as a diagonal or corrective run, not a motive wave.
What matters more is what followed: an A-wave down to about $1.04, a B-wave bounce to $1.09, and a C-wave flush straight into $0.9862. That C-wave measures roughly nine-tenths the size of the A-wave — proportional, not a blow-off — while the B-wave sits at roughly four-tenths of A. Both ratios are textbook zigzag proportions.
That's the tell. This reads as a corrective zigzag completing at the $0.9862 low, not the start of a fresh impulsive breakdown. Above current price, the Fibonacci grid drawn off the $0.9862-to-$1.09 swing stacks resistance in a tight band, and until that band clears with real volume, the higher-degree bias stays capped.
| Fib Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 0.382 | $1.051 | First real resistance shelf |
| 0.500 | $1.038 | Midpoint of the swing |
| 0.618 | $1.026 | Golden pocket — key reclaim test |
XRP's big drop held its floor — now it's fighting resistance directly above. This is the battle zone.
1H — Primary Count vs the Bull-Trap Alternate
Drop to the one-hour chart for the live tactical picture. The auto-count tags a five-down from $1.05 to about $0.9915 — but again, check the rules first: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, and wave 4 overlaps wave 1. Both broken. So this leg gets relabeled as a corrective decline, not an impulse.
Off that $0.9915 low: wave A rallies to $1.03, wave B dives straight to $0.9862 — sweeping the exact same floor flagged as the higher-degree invalidation — and wave C recovers to about $1.01, roughly where price sits right now. B measures 1.15x of A, C measures 0.64x of A: a slightly expanded flat, a pattern common when a market is absorbing liquidity before a real directional move.
Primary count: the correction is complete
That B-wave sweep of $0.9862 was the final flush. This bounce to $1.01 is the start of the reclaim leg. Confirmation trigger: a clean hourly close back above $1.021.
Alternate count: this is a bull trap
If price can't hold the $1.01 shelf and rolls over, that C-wave bounce was nothing more than a smaller-degree B-wave inside a larger flat or triangle that hasn't finished. Under this read, XRP revisits $0.9862 — and this time it doesn't hold. Confirmation trigger: an hourly close back below $0.9915.
Third option: sideways grind
Price keeps oscillating between $1.01 and $0.99 without a clean break either way, carving a larger fourth-wave triangle before the next real leg. Lowest-probability read, but on the table given how choppy this market has been.
15M — Entry Trigger: Chop Under $1.01
Down on the fifteen-minute chart, this is pure timing. The auto-count shows another broken structure — wave 2 retraces over 100% of wave 1, wave 4 overlaps wave 1 — so treat this as choppy corrective action, not a clean five-wave push.
Price has spent the last three sessions carving a small five-wave sequence between $0.99 and $1.01, followed by an A-wave dip to about $0.9965, a B-wave poke back to $1.01, and now a C-wave sitting at $0.9994 — glued to the round-dollar level. B came in at 1.11x A, C at 0.84x A — another expanded flat, the exact same fingerprint seen on the hourly chart.
That repetition matters. This market keeps building the identical corrective shape at every degree — that usually means it's coiling, not trending.
| Trigger | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish trigger | Close above $1.01 (rising volume) | C-wave extending — hourly reclaim confirming |
| Local invalidation | Close below $0.9994 | Kills the immediate long — hands control to bears |
Right now price is stuck in no-man's-land between those two lines. That's exactly why patience matters — don't chase the middle of the range; let the fifteen-minute confirm before sizing in.
The Scenarios, Ranked
| Scenario | Probability | Confirmation | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim (correction complete) | Primary | Hourly close above $1.021 | Targets $1.022 → $1.044 → $1.063 |
| Bull trap (fresh low ahead) | Alternate | Hourly close below $0.9915 | Retest of $0.9862, likely breaks it |
| Sideways triangle | Lowest | No clean break either side of $0.99–$1.01 | More chop before the real move |
External market pricing lines up loosely with this ranking. Polymarket's current frontrunner outcome for XRP puts it in the $1.00–$1.10 bucket at 57% odds, with the $0.90–$1.00 bucket as the second-most-likely outcome at 43% — a split that echoes the reclaim-vs-trap tension in the wave count almost exactly.
Positioning & Order Flow (The Edge)
Structure alone doesn't tell the whole story — positioning does the rest. Funding has been sitting flat through this bounce, which means leveraged longs aren't piling in aggressively to chase $1.00. That's actually constructive for the reclaim case: a move higher without crowded funding has more room to run before it gets punished.
Open interest, however, is climbing even as price stalls under the ceiling. That combination — rising OI, flat funding, price capped — typically means fresh positions are being opened on both sides of the trade, not just longs. Sellers are still leaning on the tape at the $1.02–$1.05 supply zone identified on the 4H chart.
Liquidation clusters
The liquidation map shows dense clusters stacking just above $1.02 and again below $0.986 — the exact two levels the wave count already flagged as decision points. A sweep through either cluster tends to accelerate price briefly before the real move reveals itself, which is why both the reclaim trigger ($1.021) and the trap trigger ($0.9862 retest) sit right where leveraged positions are most exposed.
Structure vs Positioning — Do They Agree?
Yes, largely. The wave count says the floor at $0.9862 is the higher-degree invalidation and the market is coiling into a decision. Positioning data says the same thing from a different angle: flat funding means no one is over-leveraged into this bounce, rising OI means real capital is engaging at these levels, and the liquidation map shows both sides staged for a squeeze depending on which trigger fires first.
When structure and order flow point to the same two levels, that's a stronger signal than either read alone. It doesn't tell you which way it breaks — but it confirms these are the right lines to watch.
Levels to Watch
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Local invalidation (bull trap trigger) | $0.9994 | 15M — kills immediate long |
| Higher-degree invalidation | $0.9862 | 4H/1H — floor that must hold |
| Hourly bear confirmation | $0.9915 | 1H — trap confirmed below here |
| Reclaim confirmation | $1.021 | 1H — correction complete above here |
| Golden pocket resistance | $1.026 | 4H Fib 0.618 |
| Midpoint resistance | $1.038 | 4H Fib 0.50 |
| Upper resistance shelf | $1.051 | 4H Fib 0.382 |
| Target 1 | $1.022 | |
| Target 2 | $1.044 | |
| Target 3 | $1.063 |
Current spot is bracketed tightly between $0.988 and $1.006 over the past 24 hours, with Yahoo Finance quoting a slightly higher print near $1.0023 on a different feed — normal cross-exchange variance for XRP at this size, but a reminder to always confirm the trigger on your own execution venue.
Setup Per the Count (Not Advice)
For anyone tracking this structurally rather than trading it blind: the reclaim thesis stays alive as long as $0.9862 holds and price eventually clears $1.021 on an hourly close. That opens the path toward $1.022, then $1.044, then $1.063 as the three staged targets from the corrective zigzag completing.
The trap thesis activates the moment $0.9915 breaks on an hourly close — at that point $0.9862 gets revisited, and given how the higher-degree structure is drawn, a break of that floor on the second test would open room toward the low $0.90s before the next real support shelf.
Summary
XRP defended its $0.9862 floor for three straight days, and that floor is still the single most important fact on every timeframe. But the bounce to $1.01 hasn't done enough yet — it's stuck in a no-man's-land that both the primary reclaim count and the bull-trap alternate can explain equally well.
The tiebreaker isn't opinion, it's price: a clean hourly close above $1.021 hands this to the bulls, while a close below $0.9915 — followed by a failed retest of $0.9862 — hands it back to the bears. Flat funding and rising open interest suggest real capital is positioning for that decision right now, and the liquidation clusters stacked around both trigger levels mean whichever way it breaks, the move likely won't be slow.
08/15/2026 — XRP Elliott Wave: $0.9862 Sweep Tests the Reclaim Thesis
XRP Elliott Wave: $0.9862 Sweep Tests the Reclaim Thesis
The Sweep That Changed the Read
Yesterday, $0.9915 was the line in the sand. Today, XRP wicked straight through it intraday, tagged $0.9862, and then clawed all the way back above the old level to close near $0.9931. As of writing, spot is trading in the $0.99–$1.00 pocket, with CoinMarketCap pricing XRP at roughly $0.998 and TradingView showing it closer to $0.991 — a spread that itself tells you how choppy this zone has become.
That wick-and-reclaim pattern isn't random. It has the fingerprints of a liquidity sweep: price dips just far enough to trigger stop-losses and liquidate leveraged shorts sitting below a well-known level, then snaps back above it before the close. On a closing basis, the old invalidation held — technically a win for the reclaim thesis. But the depth of that wick forces a revision to the map.
Three separate timeframes are all flashing the exact same broken rule — wave twos over-retracing, wave fours overlapping wave ones. That's not what a clean five-wave impulse down looks like; it's the signature of a correction. So is the reclaim genuinely back on, or was that bounce just bait for late longs? Let's build the structure from the top down.
4H — The Corrective Skeleton
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart is where the higher-degree bias lives, and it's the first place the impulse-down narrative falls apart under scrutiny.
From the low near $1.12, XRP rallied into what looks like a textbook five-wave sequence at first glance: a wave 1 up, a wave 2 pullback, a wave 3 push to $1.13, a wave 4 dip, and a wave 5 top just above $1.16. Run the math on the retracements, though, and the impulse label breaks down fast.
- Wave 2 retraced roughly 200% of wave 1 — a full round trip and then some, which violates the most basic rule of impulse waves.
- Wave 4 dipped back into wave 1's price territory, a second hard rule violation.
- Together, these two breaks mean this cannot be a five-wave advance — it has to be corrective, most likely a double zigzag or a WXY structure.
From the $1.16 high, price rolled over into an A-wave down to $1.04, a B-wave bounce to $1.09, and a C-wave that drove all the way down to $0.9862. The C-to-A ratio here sits near 1:1, which is textbook for a zigzag's final leg.
| 4H Wave | Price Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Wave 1 low | $1.12 | Origin of the corrective rally |
| Wave 3 high | $1.13 | Mid-structure peak |
| Wave 5 top | $1.16+ | Final high before the A-B-C decline |
| A-wave low | $1.04 | First leg of the decline |
| B-wave high | $1.09 | Corrective bounce |
| C-wave low | $0.9862 | Fresh hard floor — the level everything now hinges on |
Above $0.9862, though, the bigger picture stays constructive: this reads as a correction inside a larger uptrend, not the start of a new bear leg. That distinction matters, and it's respected by every timeframe below.
1H — Primary Count vs. The Bull-Trap Alternate
Drop down to the 1-hour chart and the same story repeats: wave 2 retraces nearly 400% of wave 1, and wave 4 overlaps wave 1 hard. Neither is possible in a clean impulse, so this segment is treated as corrective too.
Scenario 1: The Reclaim (Primary, ~50%)
From the wave 5 high near $1.05, price fell into an A-wave low at $0.9915 — yesterday's line. It bounced into a B-wave near $1.03, then rolled into a C-wave that undercut everything, wicking to $0.9862 before snapping back. That completes a WXY correction. If this read is correct, price should base here and reclaim the 0.618 retracement at $1.022, confirming buyers are back in control.
Scenario 2: The Bull Trap (Alternate, ~32%)
Wipe the chart and consider the alternate: this entire bounce off $0.9862 is just a B-wave bull trap inside a bigger decline. If price fails to reclaim the 0.5 retracement at $1.033 and instead closes below $0.9862, that confirms it. The correction isn't finished, and the next leg targets the low-$0.90s — right into a large resting bid wall.
| Scenario | Trigger | Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim (primary) | 1H close above $1.022 (0.618 retracement) | Resumption toward $1.05+ | ~50% |
| Bull trap (alternate) | 1H close below $0.9862 | Low-$0.90s (major bid wall) | ~32% |
| Chop / no decision | Price stays between $0.9862–$1.022 | Range-bound | ~18% |
15M — Timing the Entry Trigger
The 15-minute chart isn't for structure, it's purely for timing. Zoomed in, you can see the same corrective fingerprint: a sharp drop, a spike low, a choppy overlapping bounce into a marked wave 5 near $1.01, then an A-B-C decline into a final C-wave spike down to $0.9862.
Notice the C-wave here runs about 1.6 times the length of the A-wave — an extended C, which is common when a correction is flushing out the last sellers right before a reversal attempt.
Since that low, price has been grinding sideways, chopping around the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone between $0.998 and $0.995, with spot currently sitting near $0.993.
| Trigger Level | Price | What It Confirms |
|---|---|---|
| 0.382 retracement | $1.001 | First sign short-term buyers are stepping back in |
| Follow-through level | $1.004 | Confirms the local low is likely in |
| Invalidation (15M close below) | $0.9862 | Entry thesis is off the table completely |
Positioning & Order Flow — The Edge
Structure tells you what's possible; positioning tells you what the market is actually paying for. Liquidation data around the sweep shows exactly why $0.9862 mattered so much — it sat directly beneath a cluster of leveraged long stops that had been building since XRP first pushed above $1.00.
When price wicked into that cluster and then reversed hard, it did two things at once: it flushed out over-leveraged longs, and it left short-sellers who chased the breakdown trapped above the reclaim. That's the mechanical reason a sweep-and-reclaim candle often marks a local low rather than the start of a bigger flush — the fuel for a bounce (trapped shorts needing to cover) gets created in the same move that punishes late longs.
Robinhood's live feed had XRP quoted around $1.006 in the immediate aftermath of the reclaim, while CoinMarketCap and TradingView pricing sat a touch lower in the high-$0.99s to low-$0.99s — normal cross-exchange spread during a volatile reclaim, but worth noting if you're trading tight levels.
Structure vs. Positioning — Do They Agree?
Yes, and that alignment is what pushes the primary reclaim count to roughly 50% rather than leaving it as a coin flip. The wave count independently arrives at $0.9862 as the C-wave termination on three separate timeframes. The order-flow data independently shows that same level sitting under a dense liquidation shelf. Two unrelated methods pointing at the same price is the kind of confluence that actually moves probability weights, rather than just decorating a chart.
That said, agreement isn't confirmation. The bull-trap alternate hasn't been eliminated — it's ticked up slightly precisely because the wick ran as deep as it did. A level being important doesn't guarantee which way it eventually breaks; it just tells you where the decision gets made.
Levels to Watch
| Level Type | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Hard invalidation (all timeframes) | $0.9862 | Close below = corrective count is dead, deeper decline opens up |
| Prior invalidation (now support) | $0.9915 | Yesterday's line, reclaimed intraday |
| 0.5 retracement (1H) | $1.033 | Bull-trap alternate needs a close above this to stay disproven |
| 0.618 retracement (1H) | $1.022 | Confirms reclaim thesis and buyers back in control |
| 0.382 retracement (15M) | $1.001 | First short-term entry trigger |
| Follow-through trigger (15M) | $1.004 | Ideal confirmation for local low |
| Bull-trap downside target | Low-$0.90s | Major resting bid wall if $0.9862 breaks |
Setup Per the Count (Not Advice)
For those tracking the reclaim thesis mechanically: the trigger is a 15-minute close back above roughly $1.004, ideally with volume confirming that short-term buyers are stepping back in. Invalidation for that specific entry sits at a 15-minute close below $0.9862 — clean and non-negotiable given three timeframes agree on it.
For those leaning into the bull-trap alternate: the confirmation is the mirror image — a failure to reclaim $1.033 combined with a close below $0.9862 flips the bias toward the low-$0.90s target, right into that liquidation-backed bid wall.
- Reclaim path: wait for 15M close above ~$1.004, invalidation at $0.9862 close
- Bull-trap path: confirmed by 1H close below $0.9862 after failing $1.033
- Chop path: expect range-bound action between $0.9862 and $1.022 until one side wins
Summary — Where XRP Sits in the Count
The primary count is a completed WXY correction — a double or triple zigzag — running from the $1.16 high down into the C-wave low at $0.9862. All three timeframes independently break the same impulse rules: wave twos over-retracing, wave fours overlapping. That's exactly the fingerprint of nested corrective waves at different degrees, not a fresh downtrend.
Confirmation for the bulls comes on a close back above the 0.618 retracement at $1.022, which reclaims the zone B-wave sellers were defending and opens the door back toward the $1.05+ region. Until then, $0.9862 remains the single most important number on the chart — the level where the reclaim thesis either gets validated or dies.
Keep it simple: above $0.9862 and building, the correction narrative stays alive. A confirmed close below it, and the low-$0.90s become the next real target. Everything else between now and then is just the market deciding which side of that line it wants to live on.
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